Bitcoin Tests $66K as Analysts Expect More Volatility Before Calm

“Bitcoin remains volatile with the drawdown of 10% we saw this week, with the recent catalyst being driven by spot bitcoin ETF outflows from GBTC of about 300mm on March 20,” Semir Gabeljic, Director of Capital Formation at Pythagoras Investments, said in an email interview.

“The drawdown still remains in line with the expected range of 10-20% as we’ve seen historically that happens right before the BTC halving event. More volatility is expected to come going into the BTC halving,” he continued.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the world’s most liquid digital assets, is down 0.5%.

CoinDesk’s Digitization Index (DTZ), which measures the performance of digitization protocols like Ethereum Name Service (ENS), was the best-performing index during Asia trading hours, up 2.7%.

In a note sent out Friday morning Asia time, Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote that the market is consolidating with bitcoin and ether trading in a “relatively tight range” and that the market “might take a break this weekend” after last weekend’s pre-FOMC volatility.

The trading house also noted that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see steep outflows, with $358.8 million leaving the fund. QCP expects a fourth consecutive day of BTC spot exchange-traded fund net outflows.

Regarding ether (ETH), QCP says that the market is starting to price out the chances of a spot ether ETF being approved anytime soon.

“The Grayscale ETH discount has widened from -8% to -20% over the past two weeks,” QCP noted.

Blockchain bettors on Polymarket also believe that the second quarter is when ether will hit its all-time high, but a sizable portion of traders also think there will be no all-time highs in 2024.