Beyond Bitcoin Halving: What’s Next?

This article is brought to you by FBS.

Bitcoin halving is a fundamental mechanism encoded in its backbone, and a critical event in the cryptocurrency market, attracting traders, investors, and digital currency enthusiasts worldwide. This phenomenon occurs roughly every four years, and is characterized by nearly 50 percent cuts in mining rewards, reduced supply of new bitcoins, and heavy speculations about the asset’s future value. These trends can theoretically lead to the asset’s increase in value as a countermeasure against inflation – similar to the dynamics of precious mineral mining. 

Market experts from FBS draw trader’s attention to the intricacies of bitcoin halving, as this event is essential for those looking to deftly navigate the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market surrounding the event, and develop sophisticated investment strategies. In this article, FBS analysts explore the halving effect and its impact on Bitcoin valuation.

Historical Price Changes and Investment Returns

Historically, Bitcoin halving events, occurring approximately every four years, have become essential milestones in cryptocurrency price movements and overall market dynamics. These events, marked by the halving of miners’ remuneration per block, have been closely associated with significant price fluctuations and generated considerable interest among investors and traders.

Bitcoin’s first halving in 2012, when the rewards dropped from 50 to 25 BTC per block, set the stage for an unprecedented price spike. An initial investment of $100 during the first halving would grow to more than $1.6 million by September 2023, indicating Bitcoin’s enormous growth potential driven by its deflationary mechanism. The second halving in 2016 further cemented this trend, reducing the reward to 12.5 BTC and preceding another significant spike that peaked in 2017, highlighting the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movement in response to halving events.

FBS analysts draw particular attention to Bitcoin’s halving of 2020 that represents a more challenging scenario. It occurred during significant global uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the initial volatility, the Bitcoin price eventually embarked on an explosive growth trajectory, emphasizing the asset’s resilience and value as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. After the 2020 halving, bitcoin reached new all-time highs, highlighting the impact of this event on broader market dynamics.

Source: CoinDesk.com, What is a Bitcoin Halving?

The crucial correlation between halving events and Bitcoin’s price should not be underestimated, FBS financial market analysts underline. These events tend to generate increased market attention and speculative interest driven by the expectation of reduced supply, and potential price increases. The anticipation and impact of halving events have often led to price spikes – the post-halving periods in 2012, 2016, and 2020 serve as the prime examples. 

The relationship between supply dynamics and price is fundamental to Bitcoin’s economic model. Halving events reduces the rate at which new BTC is created, thereby limiting supply. Given that Bitcoin’s supply is limited to 21 million coins, these events contribute to a shortage of the cryptocurrency, which, combined with increasing demand, has historically led to higher prices. 

As the next halving on April 24, 2024, approaches, the cryptocurrency community eagerly anticipates its potential impact on the bitcoin price and cryptocurrency market dynamics. Historical examples show that halving events can lead to significant price increases in the months and years following the event. However, the unique economic circumstances, regulatory changes, and technological advances associated with each halving event mean that the outcome of each event can be different.

Why Is the 2024 Halving Different From Others?

FBS analysts underscore the unique traits of the 2024 Bitcoin halving. This year, it is more than just another cyclical event in the cryptocurrency history; it is a turning point that heralds a new era in Bitcoin’s evolution, characterized by profound changes in market dynamics. 

For the first time, halving is preceded with a bitcoin rally, which differs from previously seen patterns where significant price spikes occurred in the post-halving months. 

What makes the 2024 Bitcoin halving trend unique is the dramatic increase in the number of institutional investors, as evidenced by the overwhelming success of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US. These ETFs, which attracted an impressive $1.5 billion in the first 15 trading days, symbolize a significant milestone in the adoption of mainstream financial instruments, and offer a stable buffer against post-halving market volatility. 

The reaction of the mining sector to the impending halving of rewards further illustrates sophisticated and proactive strategies. By raising significant funds, such as Core Scientific’s $55 million equity offering and Marathon Digital’s $750 million hybrid equity raise, miners are strengthening their operations against expected reductions in blockchain rewards. 

FBS analysts name another unprecedented aspect of the 2024 halving – the explosion of on-chain activity on Bitcoin, driven partly by the introduction of sequence Inscriptions. This innovation has created more than 59 million NFT-like collectibles, generated more than $200 million in transaction fees, and significantly enriched the Bitcoin ecosystem. The surge of network activity and the added utility introduced by ordinal inscriptions signify a notable evolution from the previously static nature of the network observed during the halving period.

The network’s hash rate, having doubled from 255 exahashes per second (EH/s) to an astounding 516 EH/s within a year, attests to the increasing energy and resources dedicated to mining Bitcoin. This unprecedented computational power affects not only the network’s security, but also its resilience and capability to adapt to the decreasing block rewards.

Further distinguishing this halving are developments like the introduction of Runes and the potential for the “Mother of all reorgs” due to the anticipated high value of the halving block. The interest in Runes, following the success of Ordinals, and the speculation around intense competition among miners for the valuable halving block, underscore the innovative spirit and the competitive dynamics within the Bitcoin community.

Bitcoin Price Horizon in 2024

FBS financial market analysts foresee the rapidly approaching Bitcoin halving, along with the rest of the cryptocurrency community. However, opinions on this topic vary greatly. This period is characterized by significant interest from various quarters, including analysts, ETF proponents, and institutional investors, all of whom indicate this could be a transformational era for Bitcoin.

The range of price predictions for 2024 and beyond is as broad as it is intriguing.

• CoinCodex softened expectations with a more conservative but optimistic forecast of a rally that will take Bitcoin to around $179,000 by August 2025 after a slight post-halving correction;

• Figures such as Michael Novogratz and Fred Thiel support this optimism, saying that after a minor correction, we could quickly see a price in the $125,000 to $150,000 range.

The discussion goes beyond these numbers: a myriad of other forecasts paint a dynamic and diverse picture of Bitcoin’s potential future value:

• Standard Chartered and Adam Back expect Bitcoin to reach $120,000 and $100,000 by the end of 2024, respectively;

• Berenberg offers a more cautious forecast of $56,630 by April 2024, while Fundstrat suggests a potential jump to $180,000 right after the halving;

• Predictions from Onramp Capital’s Jesse Myers, Google’s Bard, and Cointelegraph reports suggest swings between $100,000 and $130,000, suggesting a post-halving rally;

• Not to be left out, figures such as Anthony Scaramucci and Michael Saylor discuss reaching or surpassing the $100,000 mark, with Saylor pointing to supply shock as the primary catalyst;

• Katie Wood of Ark Invest imagines a future in which Bitcoin’s value could rise to $1.5 million by 2030, with a base case of $600,000, painting an extremely optimistic picture;

• However, JPMorgan forecasts a drop in Bitcoin’s price to $42,000 after the halving event, as production costs set a historical price floor, challenging profitability for miners but favoring larger publicly listed companies in a market shakeout.

BTCUSD, Weekly Timeframe

Source: FBS.

Despite differing opinions, many have noticed correctly – the bull run is now a Bull Run. Therefore, despite the different forecasts, FBS’s outlook is also bullish. 

On the weekly chart, BTCUSD, having reached an all-time high, corrected it and may be expecting further movement. FBS financial market analysts signal that in case of a break above the resistance level of 74,000, the target could be the $90,000 level corresponding to 138.2 Fibonacci.

Institutional demand, the historical impact of halving events, and general sentiment toward Bitcoin favor a bullish outlook, FBS analysts conclude. Nevertheless, investors and enthusiasts should prepare for potential volatility and take a long-term perspective when evaluating Bitcoin’s prospects.

Key Takeaways From FBS

In conclusion, FBS financial market experts see the 2024 halving as a watershed moment that may change the cryptocurrency space and fundamentally affect the rest of the markets. Against a backdrop of growing institutional interest and technological advancements, this halving is expected to significantly reduce the supply of Bitcoin, potentially triggering a bullish market reaction. However, one must never forget that the cryptocurrency world is, more often than not, unpredictable. 

In this atmosphere of optimism mixed with uncertainty, one must be guided by a clear strategy and be prepared for any scenario. 

About FBS

FBS is a licensed global broker with over 15 years of experience and more than 90 international awards. FBS is steadily developing as one of the market’s most trusted brokers, with its traders numbering more than 27,000,000 and its partners exceeding 700,000 around the globe. The annual trading volume of FBS clients is over $8.9 trillion. FBS is also the Official Partner of Leicester City Football Club.

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